From:
Sent: Monday, September 21, 2009 9:03 AM
To:
Subject: Leading Economic Indicators - up 5 months in a row
Monday, September 21 (10:00 a.m.)
Leading Economic Indicators (Conference Board)
About as expected in August (the median forecast was +0.7%). July revised to +0.9% (from +0.6%). Three components (supplier deliveries, the slope of the yield curve, and stock prices) accounted for most of the increase. The coincident index appears to have flattened over the last couple of months, consistent with the economy having reached a bottom.
| | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
| Leading Economic Indicators | -0.3 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| factory workweek | -.06 | .13 | -.13 | .06 | .19 | .00 |
| jobless claims | -.10 | .16 | -.04 | .08 | .31 | -.09 |
| orders, consumer gds and materials | -.15 | .07 | -.13 | .05 | .04 | * .00 |
| supplier deliveries | -.21 | .09 | .33 | .05 | .09 | .35 |
| new orders, nondef cap gds | -.02 | -.07 | .16 | -.01 | .15 | * -.06 |
| building permits | -.20 | -.07 | .11 | .26 | -.03 | .07 |
| stock prices (S&P500) | -.24 | .44 | .24 | .10 | .04 | .30 |
| money supply (M2) | .34 | -.26 | .25 | -.09 | -.11 | * -.34 |
| yield curve (10-yr Tsy – ff) | .26 | .28 | .31 | .35 | .34 | .34 |
| consumer expectations | .08 | .27 | .18 | -.01 | -.17 | .05 |
| Coincident Economic Indicators | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | * 0.1 | * 0.0 |
| nonfarm payrolls | -.27 | -.21 | -.12 | -.19 | -.11 | -.09 |
| real personal income | -.15 | -.08 | -.01 | -.12 | .01 | * .03 |
| industrial production | -.24 | -.09 | -.16 | -.05 | .14 | .12 |
| real business sales | -.13 | -.08 | -.08 | -.07 | * .02 | * .01 |
| Lagging Economic Indicators | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| coincident-lagging ratio | 89.1 | 89.3 | 89.5 | 90.0 | 90.5 | 90.6 |
* In the LEI, the Conference Board estimates manufacturers’ orders and the price adjustment for the money supply (the PCE Price Index). In the CEI, the Conference Board estimates personal income for the latest month and business sales for the two previous months. Note also that most components are subject to revision.
From the report: “After having fallen steadily since reaching a peak in July 2007, The Conference Board LEI for the
Bottom Line: No surprise.
Scott J. Brown
SVP - Chief Economist
Raymond James & Associates
(727) 567-2603
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