Building Permits fell 4.0% in October to a 552,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (median forecast: 580,000). Housing Starts sank 10.6% to a 529,000 pace (median forecast: 600,000) -- single family down 6.8%, multi-family down 34.6%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in October (median forecast: +0.2%), up 0.2% ex-food & energy (+0.18177% before rounding, median forecast: +0.1%). New vehicles +1.6%. Used vehicles +3.4%. Energy +1.5%, boosted by the seasonal adjustment.
Bottom Line: The CPI was slightly higher than expected, but appears to be due to quirks in vehicle pricing (earlier discounts, new-model-year adjustments). The residential construction figures were terrible, but likely reflected concerns about the pending expiration of the first-time homebuyers tax credit (which has since been extended). The bond market may be a little wary of the CPI figures. The construction data should be a negative for equities and a plus for bonds, but may be partly dismissed due to the timing of the homebuyer incentive extension (a rebound in the construction data is likely in November, but it should be a gradual recovery in housing over time).
Scott J. Brown
SVP - Chief Economist
Raymond James & Associates
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